We have grown up with Moore’s law so to say, as we have seen and experienced the digital world grow by leaps and bounds for over 50 years now. It was in 1965 that Moore’s law was introduced by Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Intel. He predicted that the number of transistors on a microchip would double approximately every year. In 1975, Moore revised his prediction to a doubling of transistors every two years, which became the widely accepted version of Moore’s law. This would mean a corresponding increase in computing power, and a decrease in costs has also gone along with it.
Most of you would have heard of semiconductor and the semiconductor industry, as its shortage was impacting every industry. Moore’s law prediction has remained true for decades and in a way a guiding principle and a scientific goal and prophecy for the semiconductor industry. That a similar prophecy can be used for any other industry in a different day and age was not contemplated upon. It is this similarity that is at the core of this post. The AI capability curve has just found its ‘Moore’s law’ moment – with new research showing task completion abilities doubling every 7 months since 2019.
What it means in real terms is that the tasks which took hours can now be done by AI in minutes or much less and at times instantaneous too. It is now widely accepted that tasks of a month-long (or much more) project, like designing a car or planning a city’s infrastructure can be done at a lighting speed, from today’s standpoint. In the backdrop is the AI’s Moore’s Law, running consistently and delivering since 2019. This has all happened because computers are getting faster, AI programs are learning faster and companies are investing heavily in the new technology. The two Moore’s Laws are working in tandem to deliver an automation tsunami which is fast approaching.
While the world is having difficulties in keeping pace with this tectonic tech change and finding their own ways and means of handling and quite a few successfully too. The tragic part is that India might be ill equipped to handle the rapid AI-driven automation. The serious bottleneck the country faces is in nearly all aspects of it. First and foremost is the skill gap, for the large chunk of unemployable engineers, this has literally come as a bolt from the blue. Given the nature of this technology, massive job losses are in the offing. Reliable internet at scale and insufficient compute remains a challenge. The less talked about the data quality, the better, there seems to be gaping holes everywhere. Added to that the regulatory lag, limited R&D investment, lack of AI talent and cyber vulnerabilities put us in a precarious situation.
AI’s MOORE’S LAW IS A HARSH REALITY AND WE ARE ILL EQUIPPED TO FACE THE AI AUTOMATION TSUNAMI EMANATING OUT OF IT.
Sanjay Sahay
Have a nice evening.